The herd is right, and the herd is wrong. I follow the herd.
Some of you are probably going to walk away from the $LUNA implosion, thinking that ponzis/crypto/yield=bad.
And honestly, that should be how some of you walk away.
But for some of you, oh no, that’s not what you should be thinking. Don’t tell me you’re going to be a binary thinkoooor, anon?
No, anything but that. For some of us, the takeaway from Terra should be to avoid binary thinking more than ever.
Because as far as I see it, if you pick any point on the timeline, that loop of taking a Terra dollar and then redeeming it for $LUNA always existed. The risk was always there.
The thing is, the perception of the risk was not always there.
Because for 2021, the bull-case for $LUNA reigned supreme. People were willing to buy into its potential of being integrated into the real world, because hey, look at this whole network being created around this algo-stablecoin.
That same potential and the same devastating risk could both be present at the same time. Just that for most of $LUNA’s timeline, people were more receptive to its potential than to its faults.
Well, until that flipped on its head, and the chart tells the rest. Billions, then 0, as it was so designed.
But splice this chart across different timeframes, and to me, it reads of the different weights people put on the bull case and the bear case across time.
I think the goal is to not be the bull or the bear, but to sit in the middle. To see both and weigh which one is winning for the time.
Which of course is easier said than done. I mean, reading the room requires figuring out which people make up the room in the first place.
And if the speedy collapse of Terra is any testament, things can change so quickly.
So yeah, it’s why I say some people should just swear things off. I’ve realized that some people just don’t have the time to stay informed—it’s why I’ve told my normie friends to dollar-cost average in and DCA out; they don’t have the time to watch the pot.
But as someone who got nothing better to do but stay informed, my takeaway from this is to keep an open mind, more than ever.
Be the sheeple, because the herd is right, and the herd is wrong. I follow the herd, ready to flip-flop at a moment’s notice. My opinions will be worth nothing until it is time for it to be worth something.
Because if you cut at the first sign of smoke, you can sit back and be comfortably warm watching the fire.
Are you positioned to smell the smoke?
And with that, I bid you adieu.
Cover image is from the game NEO: The World Ends with You. Yes, my development of carpal tunnel is well under way. Please tell me of typos on Twitter.